research

This study looks at how risk exposure shapes demand for index-based insurance among herding households in rural Mongolia, where extreme winters pose a threat to livestock and the livelihoods of those who depend on it. We draw on district-level data on livestock mortality and insurance uptake, covering the whole country and spanning eleven years. Results indicate that demand for index insurance increases in areas exposed to adverse winter conditions during the insurance sales period, when pastoralists have to decide about buying insurance coverage for next year’s winter. These results are best explained by availability bias, with households adapting their risk perception in response to adverse weather conditions.

Journal article · Replication package

We analyze the impact of anticipatory humanitarian cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia before an extreme winter event reached its peak. For recipients with smaller herds before the disaster, the receipt of anticipatory cash transfers increases their post-disaster herd size, herd-related investments, and home consumption of livestock. No significant effects of the intervention are detected when considering the full sample, including relatively wealthy pastoralists. The paper includes a discussion of the practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.

Journal article · Policy brief · Replication package

We examine if receiving anticipatory cash transfers crowds out demand for index-based livestock insurance in Mongolia, using a randomized cash transfer experiment during an extreme winter and linking household panel survey with insurance customer data. We find no evidence of charity hazard and can rule out large negative effects on insurance demand. Treatment effects differ by prior insurance experience. While previously uninsured households show no significant response, households with insurance experience are more likely to purchase insurance after the cash transfer. Our results suggest that, in contexts with incomplete assistance and established index insurance, anticipatory assistance need not undermine insurance demand.

Working paper

This paper tests whether need or political economy factors determine the allocation of humanitarian aid in the wake of the 2015/16 winter disaster in Mongolia. Using district-level data, we distinguish between humanitarian aid delivered by the Mongolian Government and international donors. Results show that projected need is the strongest predictor for the allocation of international humanitarian aid across districts. Projected need is less relevant for the allocation of governmental humanitarian aid. We do not find evidence that political alignment or core voter considerations matter for either governmental or international humanitarian aid.

Journal article

We study stated and realized demand for a new parametric insurance product against excessive rainfall among rice farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. Using a household survey of 3,000 rice-farming households, we elicit willingness to pay: 33% of respondents report a WTP of at least half the market price, and 18% report a WTP equal to or higher than the market price. Yet when insurance agents offered the product at a subsidized price below respondents’ stated WTP, no respondent purchased it. We discuss mechanisms that may explain this discrepancy between stated and realized demand, including limited incentive compatibility of the WTP elicitation mechanism, changes in valuations, and contextual barriers to insurance adoption.

Working paper

Extreme heat can pose risks to human health, including increasing psychological stress and aggression. We study whether the impact of ambient temperature affects violence against children using three waves of panel data of school children in Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda. Working paper coming soon.

I participated in this project as part of the Many Economists Collaborative on Researcher Variation, which consists of 146 research teams. Each team completed the same causal inference tasks three times under varying constraints.

Working paper

Another many-researcher project. Here I participated as part of a research team together with Julian Roeckert. The project studies the variation in analytical choices and findings. Currently, the feedback from the participating research teams is being incorporated into the paper draft.

Project website

As part of this many-researcher project, I reproduce a study published in the Journal of Development Economics using the original dataset. The project will provide replicability rates by collecting and analyzing replication reports of over 60 non-laboratory studies in economics.

Project website